When Las Vegas Aces stepped onto the court for 2025 WNBA Finals, the odds already tipped heavily in their favor – a -130 line versus the Phoenix Mercury at +110. The series opens Friday, October 3, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the Aces listed as 3.5‑point favorites and a game total of 161.5 points. What makes this matchup especially intriguing is the Aces’ meteoric bounce‑back from a sub‑.500 record at the 25‑game mark, a turnaround that few thought possible just months earlier.
Season Turnaround: From Sub‑500 to Championship Favorites
At the quarter‑point of the 2024‑25 season, the Aces were sitting 12‑13, a stark contrast to the dominant stretches that earned them two straight titles. According to ESPN Research, only two other teams in WNBA history have cracked the Finals after such a sluggish start, making the Aces the third. The catalyst? A mid‑season trade that brought veteran guard Kahleah Copper back to the roster, plus a revamped defensive scheme by head coach CB McGrath. By the time they hit the playoffs, the Aces were riding an eight‑game winning streak, crushing opponents in the first two rounds and setting a tone that would carry them to the Finals.
First Seven‑Game Finals: What the New Format Means
The league announced a historic shift this season: the championship series expands from five to seven games for the first time since the WNBA adopted the five‑game format in 2005. 2025 WNBA FinalsLas Vegas, Nevada will now demand deeper benches and more strategic adjustments. Analysts say a seven‑game series reduces the chance of a single upset deciding the title, rewarding depth and endurance – two areas where the Aces excel thanks to their seasoned core. For the Mercury, the extended format offers a larger window to exploit any lapses by the Aces, especially on the road.
Key Players and Betting Odds
All eyes are on A'ja Wilson, forward for the Aces, who leads the Finals MVP market at -105. Wilson, a two‑time league MVP, has averaged 22.3 points and 8.1 rebounds in the postseason, cementing her status as the team’s offensive engine. Close behind is veteran Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas, listed at +170 for the MVP. Thomas, now in her ninth season, has appeared in 54 playoff games – the third‑most in WNBA history for a player without a championship ring. Other notable odds include Satou Sabally (+900), Jackie Young (+2000), and Kahleah Copper (+2200). The spread and total reflect the offensive fireworks both squads displayed in the playoffs, with the Aces averaging 89.4 points per game and the Mercury not far behind at 85.7.
Reactions from Coaches and Analysts
“We’ve learned to win in adversity,” said Coach Becky Hammon of the Aces in a post‑game press conference. Hammon highlighted the team’s mental resilience after the early‑season slump, noting that “the hurt we felt at 12‑13 sparked a fire that’s still burning.” On the other side, Mercury head coach Cindy Blanchard praised her roster’s growth, saying, “Alyssa’s leadership and our new defensive rotations give us confidence we can push this series to seven.” Sports betting analyst Mike Caruso of BetMGM noted that the seven‑game format “tilts the scales toward depth, which favors the Aces, but the Mercury have proven they can adapt in a pinch.”
Looking Ahead: What’s at Stake for Both Franchises
Beyond the championship, the Aces are chasing a third consecutive title, a feat not achieved since the Houston Comets in the late 1990s. A repeat would solidify Las Vegas as the league’s new dynasty hub, potentially influencing future free‑agency decisions and franchise valuations. For the Mercury, a title would break a four‑year Finals drought and finally reward Alyssa Thomas’s decade of postseason toil. The city of Phoenix is also watching closely; a championship could spark a surge in youth participation and sponsorship deals for the franchise. With the series now a marathon rather than a sprint, every game will test coaching adjustments, bench contributions, and, of course, clutch shooting under pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the new seven‑game format affect the teams' strategies?
The extended series rewards depth and stamina. Coaches can rotate players more freely, reducing fatigue for star athletes. It also diminishes the impact of a single off‑night, meaning teams will focus on long‑term adjustments rather than short‑term fixes.
What led the Aces from a 12‑13 record to become favorites?
A mid‑season trade brought back Kahleah Copper, a defensive overhaul by coach Becky Hammon, and a surge in scoring from A'ja Wilson helped the team win eight straight games, propelling them into the top seed and the odds market.
Who are the key players to watch in the Finals?
A'ja Wilson (Aces) leads the MVP odds and anchors the offense, while Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) provides veteran leadership and rebounding. Satou Sabally, Jackie Young, and Kahleah Copper also bring spark off the bench.
What impact could a championship have on the Mercury franchise?
A title would end a four‑year Finals drought, boost fan engagement in Phoenix, and likely increase sponsorship revenue. It would also cement Alyssa Thomas’s legacy, giving her the championship she’s pursued for over a decade.
When and where is Game 1 being televised?
Game 1 kicks off on Friday, October 3, 2025, at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on ESPN, with the venue set at the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
