When Alfredo Fratti, Uruguay’s Minister of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries, walked out of a meeting in Mexico City on October 30, 2025, he didn’t just shake hands — he opened a door. A very specific, very lucrative door: one that could let Uruguayan mandarins, bone-in sheep meat, and rice flood into Mexican supermarkets and restaurants. The stakes? Not just more sales, but a strategic pivot away from over-reliance on Brazil and the EU after droughts hammered exports in 2023. And the timing? Perfect. Mexico’s own Harvesting Sovereignty Program, launched in April 2025 to boost white corn production to 25 million metric tons by 2030, has left gaps in its food supply chain — gaps Uruguay is sprinting to fill.
What Uruguay Wants — And Why Mexico Is Listening
The delegation, which included Santiago Wins, Uruguay’s Ambassador to Mexico, and Gastón Scayola, President of the National Meat Institute (INAC), didn’t come empty-handed. They brought technical dossiers, data points, and a clear ask: lift restrictions on three high-value products. First, mandarins. Right now, Mexico bans Uruguayan citrus — even though Uruguay ships 80,000 tons of citrus annually, mostly to Europe and the U.S. The goal? Hit 130,000 tons by 2028. Second, bone-in sheep meat. Mexican health protocols currently require deboning, a costly step that cuts into profit margins. Uruguay’s Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries (MGAP) wants to use the sheep compartment system — already accepted in the U.S. and Chile — to bypass that. Third, rice. And here’s the kicker: Uruguay already captured 22% of Mexico’s rice imports in Q1 2025, up from just 4% a year earlier. Meanwhile, the U.S. share dropped from 90% to 38%. That’s not luck. That’s strategy.The Numbers Don’t Lie — And They’re Getting Better
The trade data tells a story of quiet dominance. In the first half of 2025, Uruguay ran a $187.1 million surplus with China, fueled by wood pulp ($533.3 million) and soybeans ($461.4 million). But Mexico? That’s the new frontier. Mexico’s agroindustrial exports hit $31 billion in 2024 — and it still imports nearly $1 billion in food annually. Uruguay’s exports to Mexico? Just $235 million in 2024, according to UN COMTRADE. But the growth curve? Steep. The U.S. used to be Mexico’s rice lifeline. Now, Uruguay’s share is nearly five times higher than Brazil’s. And it’s not just rice. Uruguay’s corn production is expected to hit a record 1.8 million tonnes in 2025-26. Wheat exports? Projected at 750,000 tonnes. Both are now being pitched to China and Mexico to break free from total dependence on Brazil. “We had a pleasant surprise,” Fratti said after meeting with Julio Berdegué, Mexico’s Secretary of Agriculture. “He committed to advancing everything possible under our Free Trade Agreement.” That’s rare in trade talks — where promises are often vague. This was specific.
Why This Matters Beyond the Border
This isn’t just about mandarins and mutton. It’s about Uruguay’s entire economic identity. For decades, the country was known as a beef and wool exporter — simple, raw commodities. Now, it’s pushing into higher-value, processed, and niche markets. Citrus isn’t just fruit; it’s a premium product with longer shelf life and better margins. Bone-in sheep meat? That’s a cultural preference in Mexico, especially in central states like Puebla and Oaxaca, where traditional dishes demand the flavor and texture only bone-in cuts deliver. And rice? It’s the foundation of Mexican meals. By inserting itself into these three categories, Uruguay isn’t just selling goods — it’s building brand loyalty. “They’re positioning themselves as a reliable supplier of strategic commodities,” says Fundación Andrés Bello, a Montevideo-based economic think tank. “But the real challenge? Moving beyond primary goods.”What’s Next — And When
Technical documents for mandarin exports are already submitted. Mexican officials have 60 to 90 days to review them. If approved, Uruguayan growers could begin shipping by early 2026. The sheep meat protocol change could take longer — possibly into 2027 — as Mexico’s agriculture department consults with local producers who fear competition. But the rice market? That’s already open. With 22% market share, Uruguay is now the second-largest supplier. The real question: Can they hold it? The answer lies in logistics. Uruguay’s ports are efficient, but shipping to Mexico requires longer sea routes than to Brazil. Still, the margins are worth it. And with Mercosur-China talks gaining momentum, Uruguay is betting that a broader trade alliance will unlock even more doors — possibly giving it preferential access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers. That’s the endgame.
Background: The Drought That Changed Everything
In 2023, drought slashed Uruguay’s agribusiness exports by 18%. Brazil, its largest partner, bought $861 million in Uruguayan goods that year — but the supply chain was fragile. The EU? $372 million. Neither offered the growth potential Mexico does. So Uruguay doubled down on diversification. It sent trade missions to Japan, South Korea, and now Mexico. It invested in cold-chain logistics. It trained agronomists in citrus grafting techniques to boost yield. The result? A 32% increase in citrus export revenue in 2024 alone. And now, with Mexico’s own corn program straining to meet domestic demand, Uruguay’s timing couldn’t be better.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Mexico opening its market to Uruguay now?
Mexico’s Harvesting Sovereignty Program aims to produce 25 million metric tons of white corn by 2030, but it’s not yet self-sufficient in other staples like rice and citrus. With U.S. rice imports falling and domestic citrus production limited by climate and land use, Mexican officials see Uruguay as a reliable, geographically closer alternative. The country’s clean agricultural record and existing Free Trade Agreement make it a low-risk partner.
How will Uruguayan mandarins compete with Mexican-grown citrus?
Uruguayan mandarins aren’t meant to replace local crops — they’re positioned as a premium winter offering. Uruguay’s southern hemisphere growing season means its citrus hits Mexican shelves from May to August, when local production is low. Plus, Uruguayan fruit is known for its consistent sweetness and low acidity, favored by high-end retailers. With no domestic citrus production in Uruguay’s peak season, Mexican importers are eager to fill the gap.
What’s the economic impact on Uruguayan farmers?
If all three products gain access, Uruguayan exporters could see an additional $120–$150 million in annual revenue by 2028. Citrus growers alone could benefit from a 60% increase in volume. For sheep farmers, removing the deboning requirement could cut processing costs by 18%, boosting net margins. The National Meat Institute estimates this could create 1,200 new jobs in rural processing centers.
Is this move tied to Uruguay’s broader trade strategy?
Absolutely. With Mercosur-China FTA talks advancing, Uruguay is testing its ability to negotiate bilateral deals outside the bloc. Success in Mexico would strengthen its hand in China negotiations and signal to other markets — like Japan and South Korea — that Uruguay is a flexible, results-driven partner. It’s also a counterbalance to Brazil’s dominance in Mercosur, giving Uruguay more leverage in regional trade talks.